Category: August

Market Analysis 20-24 August

Market Analysis 20-24 August

USD Direction this week: Range bound

The FOMC minutes on Wednesday and durable goods report on Friday will be the main data point of the week It is expected the USD will remain firm into the release of the FOMC minutes and there is a high probability the FOMC pursues additional measures to stimulate the US economy. We expect a firm rise in the durable goods consensus, which would be the third monthly solid rise in a row.

Potential currency movers this week:

Wednesday FOMC;  

AUD/USD Direction this week: Range bound

It is expected consolidation of this currency pair as the RBA Board meeting minutes are unlikely to offer any new insights on policy. Break through 1.0436 support confirms a trend change and immediate exposes 1.0372 channel support

Potential currency movers this week:

Tuesday RBA board minutes;  
Thursday China flash manufacturing PMI;  
Friday RBA Governor testimony;

AUD/JPY Direction this week: Bullish

Overall we expect the AUD to drift slightly higher over the week against JPY. The July trade balance is forecast to come worst then June. 

Potential currency movers this week:

Wednesday Trade Balance, BoJ Governor Shirakawa Press Conference;
GBP/USD Direction this week: Bullish
 
We ramain bullish on sterling, the reasons are firm production, construction and retails sales data for June suggest Q2 GDP is very likely to be revised higher (on Friday) from the initial -0.7% qoq estimate.
 
Marius Mass
Green trades...
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