Category: Market Analysis

Market Analysis 20-24 August

Market Analysis 20-24 August

USD Direction this week: Range bound

The FOMC minutes on Wednesday and durable goods report on Friday will be the main data point of the week It is expected the USD will remain firm into the release of the FOMC minutes and there is a high probability the FOMC pursues additional measures to stimulate the US economy. We expect a firm rise in the durable goods consensus, which would be the third monthly solid rise in a row.

Potential currency movers this week:

Wednesday FOMC;  

AUD/USD Direction this week: Range bound

It is expected consolidation of this currency pair as the RBA Board meeting minutes are unlikely to offer any new insights on policy. Break through 1.0436 support confirms a trend change and immediate exposes 1.0372 channel support

Potential currency movers this week:

Tuesday RBA board minutes;  
Thursday China flash manufacturing PMI;  
Friday RBA Governor testimony;

AUD/JPY Direction this week: Bullish

Overall we expect the AUD to drift slightly higher over the week against JPY. The July trade balance is forecast to come worst then June. 

Potential currency movers this week:

Wednesday Trade Balance, BoJ Governor Shirakawa Press Conference;
GBP/USD Direction this week: Bullish
 
We ramain bullish on sterling, the reasons are firm production, construction and retails sales data for June suggest Q2 GDP is very likely to be revised higher (on Friday) from the initial -0.7% qoq estimate.
 
Marius Mass
Green trades...
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Market Analysis 23-27 July

Market Analysis 23-27 July 

USD Direction this week: Range bound

Volatility has been fairly low over past few weeks however it didn’t stop USD to climb higher as projected and should stay in the uptrend for at least Monday, Tuesday. Weak Eurozone PMI’s should be supportive for the Index. Important decision for USD is US QII GDP report this week which is likely to fail expectations due to further quantitative easing by the FED causing USD to ease of its uptrend.

Potential currency movers this week:

Tuesday Eurozone PMI  
Wednesday IFO;  
Friday US GDP;

AUD/USD Direction this week: Bearish

It is expected consolidation of this currency pair with the downside potential caused by week Australian CPI due to high relationship between Australian and New Zealand inflation.

Potential currency movers this week:

Tuesday China PMI;  
Wednesday Australian CPI;  
Friday US GDP;

AUD/JPY Direction this week: Bearish

AUD/JPY should slide lower this week due to worsening global economic outlook, soft Chinese economic data and heavy influence by offshore changes. 

Eurozone fears return: Shares fell and the euro stayed vulnerable after hitting fresh lows early on Monday in Asia, as concerns grew about Spain's ability to  avoid a sovereign bailout.  More bad news emerged when another region Murcia said on Sunday it would seek government financial assistance, while  media reported half a dozen governments were ready to follow in the footsteps  of Valencia. U.S. and European stocks tumbled on Friday after indebted region Valencia sought financial aid from Madrid. Spain's main stock index plunged  5.8 percent for its biggest one-day drop in two years, while Spain's 10-year government bond yield scaled a euro-era high at 7.32 percent Read full report here: Financials_Weekly_-_230712
 
Marius Mass
Green trades...
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Market Analysis 16-20 July

Market Analysis 16-20 July 

USD Direction this week: Bullish

It is expected to see strengthening of USD due to major currency swap rates relative to US swap rates reduction, accompanied with uncertain situation in Europe. The upside risks should be limited though, influenced by US interest rates and current account deficit of 3.1 % of GDP.

Potential currency movers this week:

Monday US retail sales, Eurozone CPI;  
Tuesday CPI, US industrial production;  
Wednesday Fed’s Beige Book;  
Friday Spain’s bank bailout Eurozone conference  

AUD/USD Direction this week: Bearish

Aussie should show some weakness due to strengthening of USD. Week Chinese economic growth will affect AUD to the downside.

Potential currency movers this week:

Tuesday                    RBA minutes, US retail sales, US industrial production, Bernanke speaks;

Wednesday              Fed’s Beige Book

AUD/NZD Direction this week: Bullish

Inflation of New Zealand in progressing further and we expect potential rate cuts ahead of RBNZ decision which will be positive for the currency pair.

Potential currency movers this week:

Tuesday                     RBA minutes, New Zealand CPI

AUD/JPY Direction this week: Bearish

This pair should be influenced mainly by Chinese data this week and fluctuation in US index. 

Marius Mass
Green trades...
Posted in july, Market Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Market Analysis 9-13 July

USD Direction this week: Bullish

USD remains quite firm despite slowing the US economy and is expected to strengthen further this week. The upside risks should be limited though, influenced by US interest rates and current account deficit of 3.1 % of GDP.

Potential currency movers this week:

Monday Eurozone finance ministers meeting  
Tuesday China trade balance;  
Wednesday FOMC;  
Friday retail sales, industrial production, US consumer confidence  

AUD/USD Direction this week: Bearish

It’s expected to see move to the downside influenced by soft Chinese economic data this week and quite strong US Dollar. Chinese inflation data is anticipated to ease to a 29-month low. it’s very possible to see bullish reaction in the pair on Thursday caused by job report.

Potential currency movers this week:

Monday China CPI;  
Tuesday China trade balance;  
Wednesday FOMC;  
Thursday Labor force;  
Friday China GDP, retail sales, industrial production;  

EUR Direction this week: Bullish

EUR is at the very strong support level and at the record lows across major currency pairs which should at least temporarily put some upward pressure. However the rally won’t last as ECB is projecting to ease monetary policy further and is expected the downward trend to continue and EUR to weaken further to target of 1.20.

AUD/JPY Direction this week: Bearish

AUD/JPY should slide lower this week due to Japan’s current account surplus, worsening global economic outlook and soft Chinese economic outlook. There is a risk of introducing by BoJ another policy easing on Thursday which could cause the currency pair to spike briefly higher.

Marius Mass
Green trades...
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Market Analysis 2- 6 July

Market Analysis 2- 6 July 

USD Direction this week: Bearish
 
We anticipate weakening of the currency with lower then expected NFP report on Friday. Downside move will be related to further EUR gains following Friday’s Eurozone Leaders’ Summit.
USD/JPY Range bound Key support is at 78.79, a break under this would expose 77.66. Resistance is at 80.62.

Potential currency movers:

Monday ISM, construction spending, Williams speaks;  
Tuesday factory orders;  
Thursday ADP, jobless claims, ISM services;  
Friday NFP;  
AUD/USD Direction this week: Bullish
 
It is expected to see uptrend of the currency this week reflecting weakening of USD and optimistic sentiment following the Eurozone Leaders’ Summit.  Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely  to leave the cash rate on hold on Tuesday. 
The Federal government’s Household Assistance Package is likely to support retail spending which should be very positive for AUD.
Potential currency movers:
 
Tuesday RBA policy meeting, building approvals;  
Wednesday retail sales,  
Thursday trade balance;  

AUD/JPY Direction this week: Bullish

It is anticipated the Tankan survey of Japanese business to remain week and with low volatility we should see strengthening of  AUD/JPY pair this week.
Potential local currency movers this week:
Monday  Tankan, Yamaguchi speaks

 

EUR/USD Direction this week: Bullish

EUR is expected to lift slightly higher this week however we expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut the rate by 0.25% on Thursday to a record low of 0.75%.
EURUSD : Resistance is at 1.2748, a break above which would prolong the recovery towards 1.2824. Support lies at 1.2407 ahead of 1.2288.

 

GBP/USD Direction this week: Bearish

We expect GBP/USD to drift lower this week if the BoE matches expectations for monetary easing -  It is expected by BoE to expand its asset- purchase program by 50 billion pounds to 375 billion pounds as Britain's economic growth outlook worsens and falling inflation gives the central bank room to render further support.  The monetary easing is likely to weigh on pound driving GDP/USD lower towards 1.5464 and then 1.5404.
 
Read Market Commentary:
 
 
 
Marius Mass
Green trades…
Posted in July, Market Analysis | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment