Category: February

Market Analysis 27 Feb – 2 March

Pepperstone | Metatrader 4 Forex Broker

USD Direction this week: Bearish

I anticipate weakening US Dollar this week which due to short term positive data from Europe which would cause EUR recent strength to continue.

Potential local currency movers from the US this week:

Monday           Fed Manufacturing, Home Sales
Tuesday          Home Prices, Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods
Wednesday    GDP, PMI, Duke Pinalto and Bernanke Speaks
Thursday         Personal Income Spending, Core PCE, Jobless Claims, ISM, Bernanke and Lockhart Speaks 

AUD Direction this week: Bearish

Data coming this week should cause Aussie to ease slightly. I anticipate weaker than expected Australian CAPEX results which will affect currency.

Wednesday     Q4 Constructions, Retail Sales,       
Thursday         Q4 CAPEX, Building Approvals, China Manufacturing PMI

JPY Direction this week: Bearish

Japanese currency is expected to ease this week due to structural reasons.

Potential local currency movers from the US this week:

Wednesday      Industrial Production and BoJ conference,

13-17 February 2012

USD Direction this week: Bearish

I expect the US economic data this week is important enough to keep downward pressure on the USD and drive attention away from Greece. In my view, the recovery in the labour market, car industry is likely to push up retail sales and industrial production.

Potential local currency movers from the US this week:

 Monday            Williams speaks
Tuesday            retail sales, business inventories, Lockhart speaks;
Wednesday       FOMC minutes, industrial production, housing index;
Thursday           producer prices, jobless claims, housing starts, building Bernanke speaks;
Friday               CPI


AUD/USD Direction this week: Bullish

 As US economic data is expected to be weak AUD/USD will have potential to move slightly higher this week Aussie will be supported by increase in employment. Keep an eye on labour force report on Thursday As Greece’s financial future is still unresolved. AUD is likely to fluctuate based upon data about Greece this week,

Monday            housing finance;
Tuesday            Debelle speaks;
Thursday          labour force;


By June 2012, I expect AUD/USD to be at around 1.05. Reasons for that will be , stable commodity prices and economic growth.

Marius Mass

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Forecast USD and AUD

Pepperstone | Metatrader 4 Forex Broker

 I anticipate US Dollar remains strong until May/June. The US 2 year swap rate during that time will continue to provide support for green buck.  The swap cost of EUR into USD, continue to be high especially for European central banks. More concerns about recession in Eurozone will result in demand for US currency.

Aussie Dollar remains strong:

 - Global economic growth Is estimated to be around 4%;
 - Economic growth in China is more likely to continue to around 8.8 % this year. As a consequence of that commodity prices are going to be stable and supported  by Asia economic growth;
 -  Further rate cut more likely in March will result in  depreciation of AUD but it won’t have long lasting effect;

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