Category: March

Market Analysis 26-30 March

USD Direction this week: Bullish

It is expected to see uptrend of the currency this week due to positive data coming from US this week and optimistic tone of Bernanke speech.  In addition building USD strength factor, should be political difficulties of Italian and Spanish economy. Due to historical events I’ve described in my earlier post I expect further weakening of JPY thus strengthening USD/JPY currency pair.

 

Potential currency movers:

Monday home sales; Bernanke speaks;
Tuesday house prices,  consumer confidence, Bernanke, Dudley, Duke speaks;
Wednesday durable goods orders;
Thursday jobless claims, Bernanke, Lockhart speaks;
Friday personal income and spending;

AUD/USD Direction this week: Range bound

This currency pair is like to range this week due to lack of major economic events. Fluctuation in direction this week will be related to European events and strengthening of USD index.

By mid 2012 I expect to see pair trading around 1.1000

AUD/JPY Direction this week: Bullish

I expect further weakening Yen due to historical events I’ve described in my earlier post last week. Further policy loosening  announced Bank of Japan will have positive influence on AUD/JPY currency pair.

Friday CPI, Industrial production;

By mid 2012 I expect to see pair trading around 92.00 level.

Marius Mass
Green trades…
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AUD market outlook still positive

Despite over 2 % drop since Monday due to China economic outlook, PMI and reduced export of iron ore announced by President of BHP , I’m still positive about Aussie Dollar. In response to slowdown in BHP’s iron ore exports  Australian Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics expressed a very positive view with anticipation of energy earnings boost over mid-term and increase export of iron for next few years. See attached graph.

In my view market is overreacting President of BHP comments and PMI event and expect to see lifting up AUD/USD and AUD/JPY pairs pretty soon which will create buying opportunities near key technical levels.

For technical Forex setups please visit my Forex Strategy section.

 
Marius Mass
Green trades...
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Market Analysis 19-23 March

Pepperstone | Metatrader 4 Forex Broker

USD Direction this week: Bullish

I expect to see continuation of uptrend this week. there are rumours about dovish tone of FED and FOMC monetary meeting . The downside fluctuations should be counteract by further improvement in US housing data.

Potential currency movers:

Monday NAHB, housing starts, Dudley speaks,
Tuesday building permits, Bernanke speaks,
Wednesday home sales,
Thursday jobless claims, Bernanke, Evans speaks,
Friday new  home sales, Bullard, Bernanke, Lockhart speaks

AUD/USD Direction this week: Bullish

The domestic and global economic outlook looks positive for AUD this week therefore I’ll be looking for opportunity to buy on pullbacks. Assumed higher prices of spot iron ore should be supportive for this pair.

Tuesday RBA minutes
Thursday Debelle speaks,

AUD/JPY Direction this week: Bullish

I expect further weakening Yen due  to smaller Japanese current surplus which will cause this pair to rise higher supported by healthy economic Aussie data.

Thursday Trade Balance,

By mid 2012 I expect to see pair trading around 92.00 level.

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USD Bullish again

Seems like USD/JPY is bullish again and has been behaving consistently over past few years. This year increased once more in the final weeks of March and early April before declining. Looking back on historical data the average incline from the beginning of March till the end of first week of following month has been roughly around 3 %. The average decrease from this date till end of April has been around 2 %.
 
I expect further incline of USD/JPY over period of last weeks of March and beginning of April.
The reasons behind are related to typical behaviour of USD/JPY by the end of Japanese financial year, which starts on the first of April. Comparing historical data of this currency pair over past fifteen years you can clearly pick up common behaviour of rally from the beginning of March till end of the first week of April.

I suspect that reasons behind this move are holdings relocations by Japanese fund managers and other structural cases which are only significant to the current financial year which is another topic itself.

Based on above conclusions there are a high probability swing type trade setups for the remaining weeks of March and first week of April and reverse direction to its peak aiming for at least 1.5 % drop down.

Marius Mass

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Market Analysis 12-16 March

Pepperstone Metatrader 4 Forex Broker

      USD Direction this week: Bullish

 

US Dollar is expected to rise higher this week due to positive data coming out of US, stronger economy improvement in labour market and positive swap yields.

Potential local currency movers this week:

Tuesday            FOCM, Retail Sales;
Wednesday      Jobless claims, producer prices
Thursday          CPI, Industrial Production, Consumer Confidence;
Friday               Bernanke speaks;
 

AUD Direction this week: Bearish

I expect AUD to continue selling off due to disappointing Chinese economic situation. The down trend will be interrupted by short rallies caused by expected positive data releases especially housing finance announcement. I don’t expect Aussie drop too low as in the second quarter AUD/USD is expected to trade around 1.10.

Potential local currency movers this week:
Tuesday           housing finance;
 PBoC Press Conference;

 

Forex Market Analysis 5 - 9 March 2012

USD Direction this week: Bullish

US dollar is expected to be supported by US economy. Positive data is anticipated with respect to payrolls.
Potential local currency movers this week:
Monday               ISM services;
Wednesday         employment change, ADP;
Thursday             jobless claims;
Friday                 NFP;
 

AUD Direction this week: Neutral

It is expected to stay in the range with anticipation to rise higher. Positive data is expected with regards to GDP and employment. Risk aversion will be more likely influenced by European data.  I expect AUD/JPY to continue on its upward trend due to Yen weakening and yield advantage.

Potential local currency movers this week:

Monday               inventories;
Tuesday              RBA, current account;
Wednesday        GDP, RBA’s Lowe;
Thursday            employment;
 

The Eurozone finance minister’s conference call will be the main event in Europe this week to watch for.

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