Market Analysis 2- 6 July

Market Analysis 2- 6 July 

USD Direction this week: Bearish
 
We anticipate weakening of the currency with lower then expected NFP report on Friday. Downside move will be related to further EUR gains following Friday’s Eurozone Leaders’ Summit.
USD/JPY Range bound Key support is at 78.79, a break under this would expose 77.66. Resistance is at 80.62.

Potential currency movers:

Monday ISM, construction spending, Williams speaks;  
Tuesday factory orders;  
Thursday ADP, jobless claims, ISM services;  
Friday NFP;  
AUD/USD Direction this week: Bullish
 
It is expected to see uptrend of the currency this week reflecting weakening of USD and optimistic sentiment following the Eurozone Leaders’ Summit.  Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely  to leave the cash rate on hold on Tuesday. 
The Federal government’s Household Assistance Package is likely to support retail spending which should be very positive for AUD.
Potential currency movers:
 
Tuesday RBA policy meeting, building approvals;  
Wednesday retail sales,  
Thursday trade balance;  

AUD/JPY Direction this week: Bullish

It is anticipated the Tankan survey of Japanese business to remain week and with low volatility we should see strengthening of  AUD/JPY pair this week.
Potential local currency movers this week:
Monday  Tankan, Yamaguchi speaks

 

EUR/USD Direction this week: Bullish

EUR is expected to lift slightly higher this week however we expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut the rate by 0.25% on Thursday to a record low of 0.75%.
EURUSD : Resistance is at 1.2748, a break above which would prolong the recovery towards 1.2824. Support lies at 1.2407 ahead of 1.2288.

 

GBP/USD Direction this week: Bearish

We expect GBP/USD to drift lower this week if the BoE matches expectations for monetary easing -  It is expected by BoE to expand its asset- purchase program by 50 billion pounds to 375 billion pounds as Britain's economic growth outlook worsens and falling inflation gives the central bank room to render further support.  The monetary easing is likely to weigh on pound driving GDP/USD lower towards 1.5464 and then 1.5404.
 
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Marius Mass
Green trades…
Trader (Forex, CFD's, Futures), Coach, Marius offers private consulting services to individuals investing in foreign exchange market. Marius specializes in price volatility techniques. Throughout years of experience, his discoveries were oriented in very unique market perception of price anatomy, Volatility and nature of price behaviour. Author of the book "Speaking Language of Forex Market" which discloses his experience and excellence of trading the Forex market. Google+
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