Market Analysis 30 April—4 May

Pepperstone | Metatrader 4 Forex Broker

USD Direction this week: Bearish

It is expected to see weakening of the currency this week due to US data, indicating on easing of the economy flow, initiated last week by weaker then expected QI GDP. It is expected to see weakening of USD bond yields and INDEX specifically along USD/JPY and AUD/JPY pairs. I don’t expect Bank of Japan is going to introduce further policy easing in the near term. The downtrend pressure of USD INDEX could be capped by downside movements in Europe. There is a high risk of rates downgrade on Thursday by ECB that may weaken EUR.

Potential currency movers:

Monday personal income and spending, PCE,
Tuesday ISM manufacturing, Williams, Lockhart speaks;
Wednesday ADP employment, factory orders, Lacker speaks;
Thursday jobless claims, ISM services, Williams, Lockhart speaks;
Friday NFP, Williams speaks;

AUD/USD Direction this week: Bullish

This currency pair is like to range this week with the upward tendency. It is expected to see rates cut by RBA, but the market has already significantly priced in the expectation of cash rate decision. Fluctuation in direction this week will be related to European events and upward AUD move will be supported by softening of USD currency due to US weaker economic data.

Potential currency movers:

Tuesday RBA policy decision;
Friday RBA statement of monetary policy;

AUD/JPY Direction this week: Bearish

I anticipate further strengthening of Yen and I don’t expect Bank of Japan is going to introduce further policy easing in the near term, specifically after raising inflation expectation last week. Japanese volume will ease this week as for the “Golden Week” celebration leading to higher volatility in USD/JPY and AUD/JPY.

Marius Mass
Green trades…
Trader (Forex, CFD's, Futures), Coach, Marius offers private consulting services to individuals investing in foreign exchange market. Marius specializes in price volatility techniques. Throughout years of experience, his discoveries were oriented in very unique market perception of price anatomy, Volatility and nature of price behaviour. Author of the book "Speaking Language of Forex Market" which discloses his experience and excellence of trading the Forex market. Google+
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