USD Bullish again
Seems like USD/JPY is bullish again and has been behaving consistently over past few years. This year increased once more in the final weeks of March and early April before declining. Looking back on historical data the average incline from the beginning of March till the end of first week of following month has been roughly around 3 %. The average decrease from this date till end of April has been around 2 %.
I expect further incline of USD/JPY over period of last weeks of March and beginning of April.
The reasons behind are related to typical behaviour of USD/JPY by the end of Japanese financial year, which starts on the first of April. Comparing historical data of this currency pair over past fifteen years you can clearly pick up common behaviour of rally from the beginning of March till end of the first week of April.
I suspect that reasons behind this move are holdings relocations by Japanese fund managers and other structural cases which are only significant to the current financial year which is another topic itself.
Based on above conclusions there are a high probability swing type trade setups for the remaining weeks of March and first week of April and reverse direction to its peak aiming for at least 1.5 % drop down.