Category: July

Market Analysis 9-13 July

USD Direction this week: Bullish

USD remains quite firm despite slowing the US economy and is expected to strengthen further this week. The upside risks should be limited though, influenced by US interest rates and current account deficit of 3.1 % of GDP.

Potential currency movers this week:

Monday Eurozone finance ministers meeting  
Tuesday China trade balance;  
Wednesday FOMC;  
Friday retail sales, industrial production, US consumer confidence  

AUD/USD Direction this week: Bearish

It’s expected to see move to the downside influenced by soft Chinese economic data this week and quite strong US Dollar. Chinese inflation data is anticipated to ease to a 29-month low. it’s very possible to see bullish reaction in the pair on Thursday caused by job report.

Potential currency movers this week:

Monday China CPI;  
Tuesday China trade balance;  
Wednesday FOMC;  
Thursday Labor force;  
Friday China GDP, retail sales, industrial production;  

EUR Direction this week: Bullish

EUR is at the very strong support level and at the record lows across major currency pairs which should at least temporarily put some upward pressure. However the rally won’t last as ECB is projecting to ease monetary policy further and is expected the downward trend to continue and EUR to weaken further to target of 1.20.

AUD/JPY Direction this week: Bearish

AUD/JPY should slide lower this week due to Japan’s current account surplus, worsening global economic outlook and soft Chinese economic outlook. There is a risk of introducing by BoJ another policy easing on Thursday which could cause the currency pair to spike briefly higher.

Marius Mass
Green trades...
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Market Analysis 2- 6 July

Market Analysis 2- 6 July 

USD Direction this week: Bearish
 
We anticipate weakening of the currency with lower then expected NFP report on Friday. Downside move will be related to further EUR gains following Friday’s Eurozone Leaders’ Summit.
USD/JPY Range bound Key support is at 78.79, a break under this would expose 77.66. Resistance is at 80.62.

Potential currency movers:

Monday ISM, construction spending, Williams speaks;  
Tuesday factory orders;  
Thursday ADP, jobless claims, ISM services;  
Friday NFP;  
AUD/USD Direction this week: Bullish
 
It is expected to see uptrend of the currency this week reflecting weakening of USD and optimistic sentiment following the Eurozone Leaders’ Summit.  Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely  to leave the cash rate on hold on Tuesday. 
The Federal government’s Household Assistance Package is likely to support retail spending which should be very positive for AUD.
Potential currency movers:
 
Tuesday RBA policy meeting, building approvals;  
Wednesday retail sales,  
Thursday trade balance;  

AUD/JPY Direction this week: Bullish

It is anticipated the Tankan survey of Japanese business to remain week and with low volatility we should see strengthening of  AUD/JPY pair this week.
Potential local currency movers this week:
Monday  Tankan, Yamaguchi speaks

 

EUR/USD Direction this week: Bullish

EUR is expected to lift slightly higher this week however we expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut the rate by 0.25% on Thursday to a record low of 0.75%.
EURUSD : Resistance is at 1.2748, a break above which would prolong the recovery towards 1.2824. Support lies at 1.2407 ahead of 1.2288.

 

GBP/USD Direction this week: Bearish

We expect GBP/USD to drift lower this week if the BoE matches expectations for monetary easing -  It is expected by BoE to expand its asset- purchase program by 50 billion pounds to 375 billion pounds as Britain's economic growth outlook worsens and falling inflation gives the central bank room to render further support.  The monetary easing is likely to weigh on pound driving GDP/USD lower towards 1.5464 and then 1.5404.
 
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Marius Mass
Green trades…
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