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Category: July
Market Analysis 9-13 July
USD Direction this week: Bullish
USD remains quite firm despite slowing the US economy and is expected to strengthen further this week. The upside risks should be limited though, influenced by US interest rates and current account deficit of 3.1 % of GDP.
Potential currency movers this week:
| Monday | Eurozone finance ministers meeting | |
| Tuesday | China trade balance; | |
| Wednesday | FOMC; | |
| Friday | retail sales, industrial production, US consumer confidence |
AUD/USD Direction this week: Bearish
It’s expected to see move to the downside influenced by soft Chinese economic data this week and quite strong US Dollar. Chinese inflation data is anticipated to ease to a 29-month low. it’s very possible to see bullish reaction in the pair on Thursday caused by job report.
Potential currency movers this week:
| Monday | China CPI; | |
| Tuesday | China trade balance; | |
| Wednesday | FOMC; | |
| Thursday | Labor force; | |
| Friday | China GDP, retail sales, industrial production; |
EUR Direction this week: Bullish
EUR is at the very strong support level and at the record lows across major currency pairs which should at least temporarily put some upward pressure. However the rally won’t last as ECB is projecting to ease monetary policy further and is expected the downward trend to continue and EUR to weaken further to target of 1.20.
AUD/JPY Direction this week: Bearish
AUD/JPY should slide lower this week due to Japan’s current account surplus, worsening global economic outlook and soft Chinese economic outlook. There is a risk of introducing by BoJ another policy easing on Thursday which could cause the currency pair to spike briefly higher.
Marius Mass
Green trades…
Market Analysis 2- 6 July
Market Analysis 2- 6 July
USD Direction this week: Bearish
We anticipate weakening of the currency with lower then expected NFP report on Friday. Downside move will be related to further EUR gains following Friday’s Eurozone Leaders’ Summit.
USD/JPY Range bound Key support is at 78.79, a break under this would expose 77.66. Resistance is at 80.62.
Potential currency movers:
| Monday | ISM, construction spending, Williams speaks; | |
| Tuesday | factory orders; | |
| Thursday | ADP, jobless claims, ISM services; | |
| Friday | NFP; |
AUD/USD Direction this week: Bullish
It is expected to see uptrend of the currency this week reflecting weakening of USD and optimistic sentiment following the Eurozone Leaders’ Summit. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to leave the cash rate on hold on Tuesday.
The Federal government’s Household Assistance Package is likely to support retail spending which should be very positive for AUD.
Potential currency movers:
| Tuesday | RBA policy meeting, building approvals; | |
| Wednesday | retail sales, | |
| Thursday | trade balance; |
AUD/JPY Direction this week: Bullish
It is anticipated the Tankan survey of Japanese business to remain week and with low volatility we should see strengthening of AUD/JPY pair this week.
Potential local currency movers this week:
Monday Tankan, Yamaguchi speaks
EUR/USD Direction this week: Bullish
EUR is expected to lift slightly higher this week however we expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut the rate by 0.25% on Thursday to a record low of 0.75%.
EURUSD : Resistance is at 1.2748, a break above which would prolong the recovery towards 1.2824. Support lies at 1.2407 ahead of 1.2288.
GBP/USD Direction this week: Bearish
We expect GBP/USD to drift lower this week if the BoE matches expectations for monetary easing - It is expected by BoE to expand its asset- purchase program by 50 billion pounds to 375 billion pounds as Britain's economic growth outlook worsens and falling inflation gives the central bank room to render further support. The monetary easing is likely to weigh on pound driving GDP/USD lower towards 1.5464 and then 1.5404.
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Marius Mass
Green trades…
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